Sarah Bohnensteffen - Analysing future regional housing demand using dynamic microsimulation

  • Presenting author: Sarah Bohnensteffen (Federal Statistical Office of Germany (Destatis))

  • Authors: Sarah Bohnensteffen

  • Session: A02D - Spatial - Monday 16:30-18:00 - Erika-Weinzierl Hall

Adequate and affordable housing as a basic need of society is an ongoing political and societal challenge. Especially in times of rising construction prices and a shortage of skilled workers, the provision of regionally required housing is a current challenge in Germany. How can we evaluate policy interventions that aim to secure affordable housing? What does the development of the housing situation depend on in the long term? The dynamics of housing supply and demand as well as the development of real estate prices are subject to multifactorial influences and show large regional differences. While in densely populated areas housing is usually scarce and rents are rising, structurally weak regions are sometimes characterised by considerable vacancies. The extent and nature of housing demand are closely linked to long-term trends in population development, household composition and migration. Dealing with the complexity in this field requires: a) a differentiated and small-scale data basis, which no data source alone can currently provide, and b) the development and application of suitable methods in order to produce meaningful statistical indicators with the necessary spatial accuracy and temporal frequency. Considering microsimulation as one way of dealing with complex questions at the level of individuals and households, we use the dynamic, time-discrete microsimulation model “MikroSim” (DFG FOR2559) and expand it by the implementation of a housing module. Housing information is first assigned to the households of the synthetic population based on a household model, which is primarily based on data German Microcensus and its supplementary programme on housing. To model long-term housing demand, the project builds on existing modules in which basic demographic events such as household formation and dissolution, employment, income and spatial mobility are simulated annually for the entire population in Germany at the regional level. Due to data availability, the modelling of intra-urban relocations is a particular challenge. Initial results show the simulated development of housing demand regionally and for different types of housing, taking into account population development up to 2040. In addition, the evolving regional housing demand is examined in scenarios under the opposing assumptions of an increased rural exodus versus urban exodus trend.