Fabrizio Culotta - AGIT: a microsimulation model for health and pension policies in an ageing Italy

  • Presenting author: Fabrizio Culotta (University of Milan - Bicocca)

  • Authors: Fabrizio Culotta

  • Session: C03A - Dynamic / Long term [4] - Wednesday 14:00-15:30 - Ceremonial Hall

Within a three-year project aimed at forecasting the implications of population ageing in Italy and including results in an interactive dashboard, this work proposes a new dynamic-ageing microsimulation model for the distributive analysis of health care and pension policies. The first step is to survey the literature on (dynamic) microsimulation modelling concerning population ageing, health care and pension systems. The second step is to build the model. The model, called AGIT (Ageing Italy), is composed of a set of submodules modelling the dynamics of the dynamics of demographic forces featuring socioeconomic heterogeneity, of the labour market and of the public health and social security system (pension, disability, unemployment). The behavioural modelling of the labour market follows the theory of frictional labour markets. AGIT makes use of newly released Italian micro-datasets (e.g. 2020-Census and the third wave of ITUS). It also makes use of IT-SILC, IT-SES, EHIS, SHARE and LFS to estimate arithmetic, i.e. non-behavioural, model transitions. Based on mortality projections provided by ISTAT, model outcomes depict the dynamics of public health and pension expenditures as well as other indicators for the distributional implications of population ageing.