Romain Guirriec - Trajectoire: an empirical micro-simulated French pension system model

  • Presenting author: Romain Guirriec (La direction de la Recherche, des Études, de l’Évaluation et des Statistiques (ministères sociaux : France))

  • Authors: CHOPARD Martin; GUIRRIEC Romain; HERBILLON-LEPRINCE Serge; KATOSSKY Arthur; ROUSSET Clément

  • Session: C02A - Dynamic / Long term [3] - Wednesday 11:00-12:30 - Ceremonial Hall

  • Slides: PDF

The Trajectoire model is an open source empirical microsimulation multi-scheme model of the French pension system. The model is used to produce detailed projections of individual careers and pensions until 2070. It is one of the reference models that has been used to simulate the 2023 pension system reform. This paper aims to give a general presentation of the model and its different key features, such as the retirement module or differential mortality.It will especially focus on the career transition module targeting aggregate exogenous projected time series using survey-based calibration techniques. Graphical examples will be illustrated by simulations of the recent reform-based measures impacts.