Tomas Miklosovic - Forecast of labor force replacement on the Slovak labor market

  • Presenting author: Tomas Miklosovic (Institute of economic research Slovak academy of science)

  • Authors: Tomas Miklosovic; Miroslav Stefanik

  • Session: B02A - Population [2] - Tuesday 11:00-12:30 - Ceremonial Hall

  • Slides: PDF

The Slovak labour market is starting to face the problem of an ageing workforce. A larger share of the workforce is leaving for retirement in recent years. The number of school graduates, on the other hand, is significantly lower. At the same time, Slovakia has a high proportion of students who leave to study at universities abroad. The result is a rapidly decreasing unemployment rate, primarily through falling supply and rising demand in the labour market. In this contribution, we will present a forecast of labour force replacement in the Slovak labour market, focusing on a detailed breakdown of occupational groups according to the ISCO classification (up to three digits) and NACE Rev.2 economic sectors. The forecast of the development of the labour market will be created through the SLAMM microsimulation model, which has been developed for a long time at the Institute of Economics of the Slovak Academy of Sciences. The presented version of the microsimulation model is based on the results of the latest nationwide census of inhabitants, houses and apartments 2021 (Census 2021). As part of the contribution, we will also point out interesting findings from the CENZUS 2021 survey. Students studying abroad represent a potential deterioration of the Slovak labour market in the medium to long term. The prognosis of Slovaks studying abroad could be created thanks to administrative data. The inflow of foreign labour is modelled by balancing demand and supply in the labour market. It means that foreign labour migration will increase as soon as there are vacancies in the labour market. The result of the forecast is the finding of a labour shortage that Slovakia will face in the near future. Slovakia is already facing a shortage in certain occupational groups today. A possible solution to mitigating this fact is the return of the Slovak workforce from abroad, a more significant influx of foreign labour migration or an increase in participation in the labour market.