Miroslav Štefánik - Modelling the disability insurance claims in Slovakia

• Presenting author: Miroslav Štefánik (Institute of Economic Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences)

• Authors: Peter Martiška, Miroslav Štefánik

• Session: C03A - Dynamic / Long term [4] - Wednesday 14:00-15:30 - Ceremonial Hall

Disability rates in Slovakia remained stable over the past decade and further. However, a shift between the subgroups of disability pensioner is visible, from fully disabled pensioners being the dominant group more than a decade ago, to partially disabled making almost 2/3 of all disability pensioners. This shift indicates a lesser straint on the labour market, even with the absolute nuber of disability beneficiaries remaining similar. To model the supply side of labour market, Slovak Labour Market Model (SLAMM) has been developed by the Institute of Economic Research of the Slovak Academy of Sciences (IER SAS). SLAMM is a dynamic microsimulation model, modelling individual decisions in discrete time. Disability, as an important factor of labour supply, is based on the probability of being disabled, depending on age and education level, which is a product of a probit estimation. Disabled persons in the model usually keep their status from past periods, assured by an arbitrary status. In our work we aim to refine the process of disability by modelling transitions from and into disability, as well as within the disability schemes, using estimated logistic regression models based on individual EU statistics on income and living conditions (EU-SILC) data. We divide the disability pensioners into two main subgroups – fully and partially disabled. As the grade of disability can change over time, the transitions between fully and partially disabled should be modelled, together with the possibility of recovery. Every process of the movement in the disability scheme during given periods, inflow, transition within groups and outflow, is modelled separately with its own dependent variables.