Julian Ernst - Below city-level population projections using microsimulations

  • Presenting author: Julian Ernst (Trier University)

  • Authors: Julian Ernst, Jan Weymeirsch, and Ralf Münnich

  • Session: A02D - Spatial - Monday 16:30-18:00 - Erika-Weinzierl Hall

  • Slides: PDF

Detailed projections of future population at low geographic levels are desirable for political and economic planning purposes. For example, city planners need population projections below the city level to estimate future requirements for schools, care, and public transportation. Unfortunately, conversion of estimates between different target geographies, for example city districts and school districts, is not straightforward in traditional approaches when geographies are not strictly hierarchical. Address-level projections using spatial dynamic microsimulation are a remedy for this problem and allow aggregation to any desired level. Using information on building types, purposes of migration, like moving into care homes or student residencies, and preferences can additionally be integrated into the modeling. In this talk, the utility of microsimulation for within-city population projections is illustrated for the case of school district planning using the German regionalized dynamic microsimulation model MikroSim.