Ingrid Schockaert - Bridging the backlog: the use of National Register data for monitoring the Ukrainian displaced persons in Flanders

• Presenting author: Ingrid Schockaert (Statistics Flanders, Flemish Government)

• Authors: Rembert De Blander, Ingrid Schockaert, Jan Pickery, Lisa Van Landschoot, Patrick Lusyne

• Session: C03D - Migration - Wednesday 14:00-15:30 - Erika-Weinzierl Hall

• Slides: PDF

Ukrainian displaced persons with temporary protection in Belgium are expected to register in the municipality where they receive shelter, and are thus included in the National Population Register. Therefore, the National Register is an exhaustive source of information on this population. However, two types of „backlog” limit its use as a monitoring tool. Firstly, people have 90 days to register. Secondly, the administrative processing of a registration - including a verification by the local police officer of the actual place of residence - also takes a variable amount of time.

In this paper, we present two methodologies to “bridge the backlog” of the National Register to obtain „timely information” on the number and distribution of Ukrainian displaced persons in Flanders. The first method is based on a comparison of weekly cross-sections from the National Register. We estimate the ‘backlog’ of the National Register directly by the elapsed time between the date of registration in the municipality and the date of first appearance in the Register. This model allows for an accurate now-casting of the displaced population. The second method uses migration and mortality data from the National Register and draws on a micro-simulation model based on relocation probabilities. This method makes it possible to forecast the number of displaced persons and their geographical distribution. Both methods are compared and validated using the post-facto observed number of displaced persons.