Samuel Vézina - Twenty years of population projections using microsimulation at Statistics Canada

  • Presenting author: Samuel Vézina (Statistics Canada)

  • Authors: Jean-Dominique Morency; Samuel Vézina; Patrice Dion

  • Session: B01A - Population Projections - Tuesday 9:00-10:30 - Ceremonial Hall

  • Slides: PDF

The goal of this communication is to present an overview of Demosim, a demographic microsimulation projection model developed at Statistics Canada to support policy planning and evaluation. We first outline the circumstances that initially led to the creation of the model twenty years ago, the challenges met during its development, and the advantages and complexities of using such a model. We then provide a global description of the model, its microsimulation architecture, base population, content, and programming language. Furthermore, through several examples of studies that used Demosim, we demonstrate the power and versatility of Demosim to answer a variety of research questions, thanks to its capacity to project many characteristics, to mimic complex demographic processes, and to account for population heterogeneity that may affect aggregate results. We show how Demosim results have contributed, for instance, to providing the public and policy makers with detailed projections that reflect the future ethnocultural diversity of the population or focus on the Indigenous populations in Canada. We conclude our presentation by outlining Demosim’s upcoming releases and development for the future.