Simon Combes - Vaccine against flu, would mRNA vaccines benefit from a premium price

  • Presenting author: Simon Combes (University College London)

  • Authors: Anabelle Wong

  • Session: C02B - Health [3] - Wednesday 11:00-12:30 - Marietta-Blau Hall

This article aims at modelling influenza using a dynamic microsimulation tool.

With mRNA vaccines on their way, it is possible that a much more effective vaccine against influenza arrives on the market shortly (Lee & Ryu, 2021; Pecetta & Rappuoli, 2022). This articles dynamically model flu epidemics. We use the social contact matrix provided by Mossong et al. (Mossong et al., 2008) so that each age group has a different number of social interactions and therefore they have a different likelihood to get infected (Melegaro et al., 2011). Microsimulation allows to carry individual information, a person infected cannot be infected during the same winter. and compute a natural history model that describes an influenza epidemic in the UK (Rutter, Zaslavsky & Feuer, 2011). The natural history model is then used to predict the cost-effectiveness of an mRNA vaccine intervention. Our model differs from Spooner et al. (2021) because what matters is the cost implied by infected individuals. We describe when an mRNA vaccine would be cost-effective providing a pre intervention cost-effectiveness assessment.

Lee, S. and Ryu, J.-H. (2021). ‘Influenza Viruses: Innate Immunity and mRNA Vaccines’. Frontiers in Immunology, 12, p.710647.

Melegaro, A., Jit, M., Gay, N., Zagheni, E. and Edmunds, W.J. (2011). ‘What types of contacts are important for the spread of infections? Using contact survey data to explore European mixing patterns’. Epidemics, 3 (3), pp.143–151.

Mossong, J., Hens, N., Jit, M., Beutels, P., Auranen, K., Mikolajczyk, R., Massari, M., Salmaso, S., Tomba, G.S., Wallinga, J., Heijne, J., Sadkowska-Todys, M., Rosinska, M. and Edmunds, W.J. (2008). ‘Social contacts and mixing patterns relevant to the spread of infectious diseases’. PLoS medicine, 5 (3), p.e74.

Pecetta, S. and Rappuoli, R. (2022). ‘mRNA, the beginning of a new influenza vaccine game’. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 119 (50), p.e2217533119.

Rutter, C.M., Zaslavsky, A.M. and Feuer, E.J. (2011). ‘Dynamic microsimulation models for health outcomes: a review’. Medical Decision Making: An International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making, 31 (1), pp.10–18.

Spooner, F., Abrams, J.F., Morrissey, K., Shaddick, G., Batty, M., Milton, R., Dennett, A., Lomax, N., Malleson, N., Nelissen, N., Coleman, A., Nur, J., Jin, Y., Greig, R., Shenton, C. and Birkin, M. (2021). ‘A dynamic microsimulation model for epidemics’. Social Science & Medicine, 291, p.114461.