Jean Rubin - Labor Force Projections in France by 2080

  • Presenting author: Jean Rubin (Insee)

  • Authors: Nagui Bechichi, Marianne Fabre, Jean Rubin

  • Session: B02A - Population [2] - Tuesday 11:00-12:30 - Ceremonial Hall

The labor force projections aim to estimate the evolution of labor resources in France by 2080. Furthermore, they are inputs for potential growth scenarios and pensions’ balance studies. Methodologically, this 12th exercise of labor force projections is in continuity with the projections published in 2017. It is based on the most recent total population projections (Algava et Blanpain, 2021), to which are applied activity rates projections of sex and age classes. For those 55 or over, the projected activity rates are derived from the Destinie microsimulation model (Blanchet et al., 2011). For the others, these rates are calculated by extending past trends. All the assumptions and scenarios used in these labor force projections were validated in a work group of experts from different organizations. The labor force would continue to increase in the coming two decades at a slower pace than the past decade : the number of actives would increase by + 20,000 per year on average untill 2040, compared to an average of + 90,000 per year between 2011 and 2021. In this scenario, this trend should reverse after 2040, with an average annual decline of 50,000 active people until 2050. The decline would then subside until 2065 before intensifying again to reach a rate of about – 80,000 active people per year on average between 2065 and 2080. Due to the aging of the population and the decline of overall activity rate it generates, the active population would pass through a peak of 30.5 million active people in 2040 before decreasing to 28.3 million active people at the projection horizon in 2080.